Best Supporting Actor
The nominees are:
Kenneth Branagh in 'My Week with Marilyn'
Jonah Hill in 'Moneyball'
Nick Nolte in 'Warrior'
Christopher Plummer in 'Beginners'
Max von Sydow in 'Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close'
Snubs: Albert Brooks for 'Drive'; Corey Stoll in 'Midnight in Paris'; Patton Oswalt in 'Young Adult'
Evaluation: I have only seen one film out of these - 'Moneyball.' I was pleasantly impressed with Jonah Hill and have decided to take him more seriously. I wish my fellow Twamp Patton Oswalt had been taken more seriously this year. But his exclusion came at zero surprise.
Who should win: I seriously don't know yet.
Who will win: Christopher Plummer. No surprises. No upsets. Not even from fellow veteran Max von Sydow.
Best Supporting Actress
And the nominees are,
Berenice Bejo in 'The Artist'
Jessica Chastain in 'The Help'
Melissa McCarthy in 'Bridesmaids'
Janet McTeer in 'Albert Nobbs'
Octavia Spencer in 'The Help'
Evaluation: All of the nominees are worthy. Shailene Woodley was the best thing about 'The Descendants.' Therefore, I wish she had been included. But none of this is an injustice.
Who should win: I have no strong opinions that any are extremely more deserving than the other. Obviously, I would prefer someone from 'The Help' to win.
Who will win: I believe Octavia Spencer will be the likely winner. But it would not shock me to see Melissa McCarthy pull an upset a-la Marisa Tomei! That could be fairly delightful too, don't you think?
Best Actor
And the nominees are,
Damien Bichir in 'A Better Life'
George Clooney in 'The Descendants'
Jean Dujardin in 'The Artist'
Gary Oldman in 'Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy'
Brad Pitt in 'Moneyball'
Snubs: Conventional wisdom should say that Michael Fassbender was snubbed for an amazing year. I am still at a loss of words for 'Shame' (and not particularly in a good way). So, I am not so sure if it's a real snub. Anton Yelchin for 'Like Crazy' (the entire film was snubbed)
Who should win? I was pleasantly surprised by 'Moneyball', and although I am not sure Brad Pitt's performance was the strongest from this category, I preferred that film to 'The Descendants' and 'The Artist.' None of the performances were blow-me-away strong, so I can't pick a preference.
Who will win? It's still up in the air, but all eyes are looking at Jean Dujardin.
Best Actress
And the nominees are,
Glenn Close in 'Albert Nobbs'
Viola Davis in 'The Help'
Rooney Mara in 'The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo'
Meryl Streep in 'The Iron Lady'
Michelle Williams in 'My Week With Marilyn'
Snubs? - Tilda Swinton for 'We Need to Talk About Kevin'; Charlize Theron for 'Young Adult'; Felicity Jones for 'Like Crazy.'
Who should win? This category is stacked with strong performances. On one hand, we have Meryl Streep, who embodies the Baroness Thatcher impeccably. However, do we really give Meryl another Oscar in this film, for which she was overqualified to do? Impersonations are arguably below her, and another Oscar win will require something more emotional. Two roles fulfill this. One is Rooney Mara, who adds several layers of complexity to Lisbeth Salander. It was a different approach than Noomi Repace's, but arguably better. It was darker, more emotional, yet somewhat more human. I expect more to come from Rooney. But this year's real winner is Viola Davis, who portrays a woman struggling with loss and oppression, and has consequently put on a false persona to hide her vulnerabilities. It is hard not to tear up during several of her scenes. Her portrayal of Aibileen is honest, human, and humbling. She deserves the gold.
Who will win? Viola Davis, for the reasons given above. If her Golden Globe speech is any indication, it seems that even Meryl is rooting for her. SAG win helps more than any precursor.
Best Original Screenplay
And the nominees are
Woody Allen for 'Midnight in Paris'
Michel Hazanavicius for 'The Artist'
Asghar Farhadi for 'A Separation'
Kristin Wiig and Annie Mumolo for 'Bridesmadis'
JC Chandor for 'Margin Call'
Snubbed: Diablo Cody for 'Young Adult'
Who should win? The raunchy chick flick 'Bridesmaids' and the nostalgia-laden pseudo fan fiction 'Midnight in Paris' would be exceptional choices.
Who will win? Woody Allen is apparently the front runner. But so was David Fincher last year. The Artist will take this one.
Best Adapted Screenplay
And the nominees are,
Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash for 'The Descendants'
Peter Straughan, Bridget O'Connor for 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy'
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, Stan Chervin for 'Moneyball'
John Logan for 'Hugo'
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon for 'The Ides of March'
Snubs? D R I V E!!
Who should win? Hugo was the best film of the bunch, and it was an incredible story. It should win.
Who will win? But Hugo won't win. The Descendants is the front runner. But I'm going to pick an upset a la Moneyball. The film has more nominations, and momentum for The Descendants died long ago.
Foreign Language Film
Who will win? The Polish film 'In Darkness' will defeat the eminent front-runner 'A Separation' from Iran. This is a category where upsets are a near certainty. Remember 'Pan's Labyrinth?' 'Biutiful?' 'The White Ribbon?'. 'In Darkness' will win solely by virtue of the Ricky Gervais rule - a film about the Holocaust is Oscar gold. Right, Kate?
Best Director
And the nominees are,
Michel Hazanavicius for 'The Artist'
Alexander Payne for 'The Descendants'
Martin Scorsese for 'Hugo'
Terrence Malick for 'The Tree of Life'
Woody Allen for 'Midnight in Paris'
Who should win? Easily, Martin Scorsese for putting together very carefully a beautiful film that told a story, was visually beautiful, and intelligent.
Who will win? They're going crazy over 'The Artist.' It's coming in for the sweep.
Best Picture
And the nominees (9x) are,
The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Midnight in Paris
The Help
Hugo
The Descendants
The Tree of Life
Moneyball
War Horse
Who should win? I can make cases for three films - The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. My strongest case would probably be for The Help. I -COULD- make cases for Drive, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, and even Bridesmaids. But they were passed over for mediocre films, such as the Artist and The Descendants, and a film that was really just cruddy - The Tree of Life. Typical Oscar bullshit.
Who will win? The Artist will win, solely by virtue of it being a silent film. Midnight In Paris really explains The Artist to a tee - we seek notalgia because the present seems unsatisfying. The Academy will pick The Artist because it's a mainstream throwback. It wasn't a bad film. But it was stale. But, then again, stale films are usually Oscar gold. Remember 'The King's Speech?'
And my (unexplained) picks for other categories:
Art Direction: Hugo
Animated Feature: Rango
Cinematography: Hugo
Costume Design: The Artist
Film Editing: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Makeup: The Iron Lady
Score: The Artist
Song: Man or Muppet
Sound Mixing: Hugo
Sound Editing: Hugo
Visuals: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Documentary Feature: Undefeated
Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Leesmore
Documentary Short: Saving Face
Live Action Short: The Shore
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