Oscar Predictions 2013

Oscar Predictions 2013

This week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will bestow their annual awards to those responsible for this year’s best films (according to them, at least). I look forward to this event every year. I love the glamour. I love the spectacle. And I love watching my favourite films be awarded the most prestigious award in show business. And, admittedly, I love being angry when the Oscar goes to someone I would prefer not to receive it.

Before I get into my commentary and predictions, I have to express both excitement and disappointment. This year is exciting not only because there are some great contenders for Oscars this year (and there really are), there is a great deal of uncertainty about who will win. Not many of the major awards have clear front-runners. Which means my predictions will probably be completely wrong (and so will yours)! This year is likewise disappointing, because several great films were completely snubbed or not done justice. Most notably, both Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow were snubbed for Best Director nominations for their respective films Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. Other great films were completely snubbed. Cloud Atlas will go down as one of my favourite films of all time. Looper was inventive, thrilling, and well-made, and it’s time for Rian Johnson to receive recognition for his work. The Perks of Being a Wallflower was a truly poignant beautiful film that I will watch over and over again. The Dark Knight Rises, while perhaps not as good as its predecessor, was a strong finish to Nolan’s trilogy. While this year’s nominees were, on the whole, very strong, these snubs hurt.

So, you know my drill! I will go through the major categories and offer commentary about who deserves it and who will win it (and, this year, I’ll comment exactly how confident I feel)!

I’ll start with the easy ones, and end with Best Picture!

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are:

Amy Adams (The Master)

Sally Field (Lincoln)

Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Snubbed:

Doona Bae (Cloud Atlas)

Emily Blunt (Looper)

Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

This is probably the only easy category where I feel completely confident. Jacki Weaver, while a wonderful actress, did not really deserve this slot in favour of the snubbed ladies I listed. None of the other names have held a candle to Anne Hathaway’s performance. Haters gonna hate. She is going to walk home with an Oscar this Sunday, and she deserves it. I am 100% confident. Don’t bet against her.

Best Actor

The nominees are:

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Denzel Washington (Flight)

Snubbed:

Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

This category is also fairly easy. Daniel Day-Lewis has won every major precursor. At this point, the only thing that is making me hesitate giving 100% confidence is that this would be his third Best Actor Oscar. Does he really need it? Furthermore, Lincoln is (justifiably so) experiencing a serious backlash. Once the eminent Best Picture contender, I think the film will be lucky to walk away with more than one major award. While I do think this one will be the one, I can’t guarantee 100% it will even happen, especially with the Weinsteins switching their campaign in favour of Silver Linings Playbook. Despite this shift of events, there is little doubt that Daniel Day-Lewis is perhaps the finest actor of our time; he DOES deserve it, and will win it. I am about 95% confident. Potential spoiler: Bradley Cooper, but it’s a super long shot!

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees are:

Alan Arkin (Argo)

Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Snubbed:

Jim Broadbent (Cloud Atlas)

Ben Whishaw (Cloud Atlas)

Javier Bardem (Skyfall)

Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

This is a wild, wild, wildcard category this year. I could make cases for every nominee. Hoffman and Waltz are lead roles in the supporting category; sometimes this helps boost their case. Tommy Lee Jones is somewhat stale in Lincoln, but he is a highly respected actor. De Niro is fantastic, and he hasn’t been rewarded since Raging Bull. Arkin’s role, while small, was refreshing in such a nail-biting thriller. It is a difficult category to predict, since the precursors have been all over the place. Waltz won both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Jones won the SAG. Hoffman won the Critics Choice. DiCaprio won the NBR (and isn’t even nominated). I may regret making this decision, but having seen all of these films and all of these performances, I have little doubt in my mind – Waltz’s performance was the strongest. And when the category is wild like this one, sometimes they actually give it to the best performance. He is leading in the precursor count. Against Waltz – Django might be too cool for the Academy. But I’m gonna cross my fingers, with about 51% confidence. I’ll give the other almost-half to De Niro.

Best Actress

The nominees are:

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Quevenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Snubs:

Marion Cotillard (Des Rouilles et d’Os)

This category has become very unpredictable! For a while, Jessica Chastain was the frontrunner. Then the SAGs happened, and Jennifer Lawrence became the favourite. While she technically still is going in, a wrench was thrown into her run when Emmanuelle Riva took the BAFTA. I still have not seen either The Impossible or Amour, so I can’t comment on the strength of the performances. Wallis held her own in the very bizarre movie. Lawrence stole more than one scene and, most of all, was likeable as a crazy girl. Chastain’s performance was much more subtle, but also much more powerful (I can compare her performance to that of Jodie Foster in Silence of the Lambs). My preference would be for Chastain to take this one, and I do think she has a chance. Lawrence has more momentum. And her chances are probably higher than Chastain. However, I think that this will be a lot like 2007 – the foreign girl will prevail in the end, much to everyone’s surprise. Remember Marion Cotillard? She won an Oscar and then became a favourite of American audiences. Riva, however, probably doesn’t have much time left at age 86. She’s a legend in France, and Amour is very much loved (pun intended)! I’m going to predict with 60% confidence that she will take home the gold. I give Lawrence 25% odds and Chastain 15%.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are

Argo (Chris Terrio)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin)

Life of Pi (David Magee)

Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Snubs:

Cloud Atlas (Lana Wachowski, Andy Wachowski, Tom Tykwer)

The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)

Conventional wisdom last month said that Kushner will take this easily; it was the one reward that Lincoln producers had planned on. But I am fairly certain that it will not happen (90% certain, in fact). The winner will be either Chris Terrio for Argo (the WGA may agree) or David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. Even though Argo has the most indicative precursor, I think that the love for Silver Linings Playbook and the aggressive Weinstein campaign will help push it to the edge. I’ll give about 70% on this one.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are:

Amour (Michael Haneke)

Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

Flight (John Gatins)

Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)

Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Snubs:

Rian Johnson (Looper)

A few years ago, I was angry that Mark Boal defeated Tarantino (recall, The Hurt Locker vs Inglourious Basterds). I loved both films, but believed one of the screenplays to be superior. Although I think Zero Dark Thirty is a better film all around, one cannot take away the magic of Tarantino’s writing. It has won the major precursors (except the WGA, for which Tarantino is always unqualified). I am about 70% sure that it will win. But watch out for Amour. It is gaining momentum, and is on its way to winning more awards than any other film this year (in its best case scenario, it wins this one, actress, director, and foreign film). I give Amour the other 30% of my confidence.

Best Director

The nominees are:

Michael Haneke (Amour)

Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Snubbed:

Ben Affleck (Argo)

Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

Lana Wachowski, Andy Wachowski, and Tom Tykwer (Cloud Atlas)

Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Well, Ben Affleck has won EVERY LAST precursor, and he is not even nominated. It makes this race both very interesting and very unimportant. Any one of these could come in for the win. I think Lincoln has lost steam, and Zeitlin is just happy to be there. Lee could win, but probably won’t. That leaves Russell and Haneke. Russell, on one hand, directed a widely popular dramedy and has been well respected in recent years. He also has the powerful Weinstein push. Haneke, on the other hand, is older, widely respected, and directed a critic darling. Personally, I think Amour is going to describe everyone on Oscar night. I’d say I’m about 51% for Haneke, and 49% for Russell.

Best Picture (ranked in order of my preference)

Zero Dark Thirty (A)

Django Unchained (A-)

Argo (A-)

Silver Linings Playbook (B+)

Les Miserables (B+)

Lincoln (B-)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (C)

Life of Pi (have not seen)

Amour (have not seen)

Snubbed:

Cloud Atlas

Moonrise Kingdom

I have been very excited this season. Lincoln was the front-runner, and now it is desperately trying to hang on. Although I think Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained are better than Argo, I still think Affleck’s film is very worthy of the win. And it will win. I am close to 100% sure of it. (Let’s say 90%).

So, in review, here is my list (including the minor categories. I’ll pick the winner, without commentary):

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Michael Haneke (Amour)

Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Best Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (Austria)

Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary – Short Subject: Redemption

Best Live Action Short Film: Curfew

Best Animated Short Film: Paperman

Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat (Argo)

Best Original Song: “Skyfall” – Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Production Design: Anna Karenina

Best Cinematography: Django Unchained

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Film Editing: Argo

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi