Oscar Predictions 2013

Oscar Predictions 2013

This week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will bestow their annual awards to those responsible for this year’s best films (according to them, at least). I look forward to this event every year. I love the glamour. I love the spectacle. And I love watching my favourite films be awarded the most prestigious award in show business. And, admittedly, I love being angry when the Oscar goes to someone I would prefer not to receive it.

Before I get into my commentary and predictions, I have to express both excitement and disappointment. This year is exciting not only because there are some great contenders for Oscars this year (and there really are), there is a great deal of uncertainty about who will win. Not many of the major awards have clear front-runners. Which means my predictions will probably be completely wrong (and so will yours)! This year is likewise disappointing, because several great films were completely snubbed or not done justice. Most notably, both Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow were snubbed for Best Director nominations for their respective films Argo and Zero Dark Thirty. Other great films were completely snubbed. Cloud Atlas will go down as one of my favourite films of all time. Looper was inventive, thrilling, and well-made, and it’s time for Rian Johnson to receive recognition for his work. The Perks of Being a Wallflower was a truly poignant beautiful film that I will watch over and over again. The Dark Knight Rises, while perhaps not as good as its predecessor, was a strong finish to Nolan’s trilogy. While this year’s nominees were, on the whole, very strong, these snubs hurt.

So, you know my drill! I will go through the major categories and offer commentary about who deserves it and who will win it (and, this year, I’ll comment exactly how confident I feel)!

I’ll start with the easy ones, and end with Best Picture!

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees are:

Amy Adams (The Master)

Sally Field (Lincoln)

Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Snubbed:

Doona Bae (Cloud Atlas)

Emily Blunt (Looper)

Emma Watson (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

This is probably the only easy category where I feel completely confident. Jacki Weaver, while a wonderful actress, did not really deserve this slot in favour of the snubbed ladies I listed. None of the other names have held a candle to Anne Hathaway’s performance. Haters gonna hate. She is going to walk home with an Oscar this Sunday, and she deserves it. I am 100% confident. Don’t bet against her.

Best Actor

The nominees are:

Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)

Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Denzel Washington (Flight)

Snubbed:

Logan Lerman (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

This category is also fairly easy. Daniel Day-Lewis has won every major precursor. At this point, the only thing that is making me hesitate giving 100% confidence is that this would be his third Best Actor Oscar. Does he really need it? Furthermore, Lincoln is (justifiably so) experiencing a serious backlash. Once the eminent Best Picture contender, I think the film will be lucky to walk away with more than one major award. While I do think this one will be the one, I can’t guarantee 100% it will even happen, especially with the Weinsteins switching their campaign in favour of Silver Linings Playbook. Despite this shift of events, there is little doubt that Daniel Day-Lewis is perhaps the finest actor of our time; he DOES deserve it, and will win it. I am about 95% confident. Potential spoiler: Bradley Cooper, but it’s a super long shot!

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees are:

Alan Arkin (Argo)

Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)

Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Snubbed:

Jim Broadbent (Cloud Atlas)

Ben Whishaw (Cloud Atlas)

Javier Bardem (Skyfall)

Ezra Miller (The Perks of Being a Wallflower)

Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)

This is a wild, wild, wildcard category this year. I could make cases for every nominee. Hoffman and Waltz are lead roles in the supporting category; sometimes this helps boost their case. Tommy Lee Jones is somewhat stale in Lincoln, but he is a highly respected actor. De Niro is fantastic, and he hasn’t been rewarded since Raging Bull. Arkin’s role, while small, was refreshing in such a nail-biting thriller. It is a difficult category to predict, since the precursors have been all over the place. Waltz won both the Golden Globe and the BAFTA. Jones won the SAG. Hoffman won the Critics Choice. DiCaprio won the NBR (and isn’t even nominated). I may regret making this decision, but having seen all of these films and all of these performances, I have little doubt in my mind – Waltz’s performance was the strongest. And when the category is wild like this one, sometimes they actually give it to the best performance. He is leading in the precursor count. Against Waltz – Django might be too cool for the Academy. But I’m gonna cross my fingers, with about 51% confidence. I’ll give the other almost-half to De Niro.

Best Actress

The nominees are:

Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Quevenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Snubs:

Marion Cotillard (Des Rouilles et d’Os)

This category has become very unpredictable! For a while, Jessica Chastain was the frontrunner. Then the SAGs happened, and Jennifer Lawrence became the favourite. While she technically still is going in, a wrench was thrown into her run when Emmanuelle Riva took the BAFTA. I still have not seen either The Impossible or Amour, so I can’t comment on the strength of the performances. Wallis held her own in the very bizarre movie. Lawrence stole more than one scene and, most of all, was likeable as a crazy girl. Chastain’s performance was much more subtle, but also much more powerful (I can compare her performance to that of Jodie Foster in Silence of the Lambs). My preference would be for Chastain to take this one, and I do think she has a chance. Lawrence has more momentum. And her chances are probably higher than Chastain. However, I think that this will be a lot like 2007 – the foreign girl will prevail in the end, much to everyone’s surprise. Remember Marion Cotillard? She won an Oscar and then became a favourite of American audiences. Riva, however, probably doesn’t have much time left at age 86. She’s a legend in France, and Amour is very much loved (pun intended)! I’m going to predict with 60% confidence that she will take home the gold. I give Lawrence 25% odds and Chastain 15%.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees are

Argo (Chris Terrio)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin)

Life of Pi (David Magee)

Lincoln (Tony Kushner)

Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Snubs:

Cloud Atlas (Lana Wachowski, Andy Wachowski, Tom Tykwer)

The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Stephen Chbosky)

Conventional wisdom last month said that Kushner will take this easily; it was the one reward that Lincoln producers had planned on. But I am fairly certain that it will not happen (90% certain, in fact). The winner will be either Chris Terrio for Argo (the WGA may agree) or David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. Even though Argo has the most indicative precursor, I think that the love for Silver Linings Playbook and the aggressive Weinstein campaign will help push it to the edge. I’ll give about 70% on this one.

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees are:

Amour (Michael Haneke)

Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino)

Flight (John Gatins)

Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)

Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Snubs:

Rian Johnson (Looper)

A few years ago, I was angry that Mark Boal defeated Tarantino (recall, The Hurt Locker vs Inglourious Basterds). I loved both films, but believed one of the screenplays to be superior. Although I think Zero Dark Thirty is a better film all around, one cannot take away the magic of Tarantino’s writing. It has won the major precursors (except the WGA, for which Tarantino is always unqualified). I am about 70% sure that it will win. But watch out for Amour. It is gaining momentum, and is on its way to winning more awards than any other film this year (in its best case scenario, it wins this one, actress, director, and foreign film). I give Amour the other 30% of my confidence.

Best Director

The nominees are:

Michael Haneke (Amour)

Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)

Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Snubbed:

Ben Affleck (Argo)

Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

Lana Wachowski, Andy Wachowski, and Tom Tykwer (Cloud Atlas)

Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Well, Ben Affleck has won EVERY LAST precursor, and he is not even nominated. It makes this race both very interesting and very unimportant. Any one of these could come in for the win. I think Lincoln has lost steam, and Zeitlin is just happy to be there. Lee could win, but probably won’t. That leaves Russell and Haneke. Russell, on one hand, directed a widely popular dramedy and has been well respected in recent years. He also has the powerful Weinstein push. Haneke, on the other hand, is older, widely respected, and directed a critic darling. Personally, I think Amour is going to describe everyone on Oscar night. I’d say I’m about 51% for Haneke, and 49% for Russell.

Best Picture (ranked in order of my preference)

Zero Dark Thirty (A)

Django Unchained (A-)

Argo (A-)

Silver Linings Playbook (B+)

Les Miserables (B+)

Lincoln (B-)

Beasts of the Southern Wild (C)

Life of Pi (have not seen)

Amour (have not seen)

Snubbed:

Cloud Atlas

Moonrise Kingdom

I have been very excited this season. Lincoln was the front-runner, and now it is desperately trying to hang on. Although I think Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained are better than Argo, I still think Affleck’s film is very worthy of the win. And it will win. I am close to 100% sure of it. (Let’s say 90%).

So, in review, here is my list (including the minor categories. I’ll pick the winner, without commentary):

Best Picture: Argo

Best Director: Michael Haneke (Amour)

Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)

Best Adapted Screenplay: David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (Austria)

Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man

Best Documentary – Short Subject: Redemption

Best Live Action Short Film: Curfew

Best Animated Short Film: Paperman

Best Original Score: Alexandre Desplat (Argo)

Best Original Song: “Skyfall” – Adele Adkins & Paul Epworth

Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi

Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables

Best Production Design: Anna Karenina

Best Cinematography: Django Unchained

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables

Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina

Best Film Editing: Argo

Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi

2012 Academy Award Predictions

Listening to Jennifer Lawrence announce the nominees was anti-climatic. The Academy decided to snub some great films and include some mediocre ones. I was not surprised. So, this year, I guess I'm left with some fairly easy decisions.

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees are:

Kenneth Branagh in 'My Week with Marilyn'

Jonah Hill in 'Moneyball'

Nick Nolte in 'Warrior'

Christopher Plummer in 'Beginners'

Max von Sydow in 'Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close'

Snubs: Albert Brooks for 'Drive'; Corey Stoll in 'Midnight in Paris'; Patton Oswalt in 'Young Adult'

Evaluation: I have only seen one film out of these - 'Moneyball.' I was pleasantly impressed with Jonah Hill and have decided to take him more seriously. I wish my fellow Twamp Patton Oswalt had been taken more seriously this year. But his exclusion came at zero surprise.

Who should win: I seriously don't know yet.

Who will win: Christopher Plummer. No surprises. No upsets. Not even from fellow veteran Max von Sydow.

Best Supporting Actress

And the nominees are,

Berenice Bejo in 'The Artist'

Jessica Chastain in 'The Help'

Melissa McCarthy in 'Bridesmaids'

Janet McTeer in 'Albert Nobbs'

Octavia Spencer in 'The Help'

Evaluation: All of the nominees are worthy. Shailene Woodley was the best thing about 'The Descendants.' Therefore, I wish she had been included. But none of this is an injustice.

Who should win: I have no strong opinions that any are extremely more deserving than the other. Obviously, I would prefer someone from 'The Help' to win.

Who will win: I believe Octavia Spencer will be the likely winner. But it would not shock me to see Melissa McCarthy pull an upset a-la Marisa Tomei! That could be fairly delightful too, don't you think?

Best Actor

And the nominees are,

Damien Bichir in 'A Better Life'

George Clooney in 'The Descendants'

Jean Dujardin in 'The Artist'

Gary Oldman in 'Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy'

Brad Pitt in 'Moneyball'

Snubs: Conventional wisdom should say that Michael Fassbender was snubbed for an amazing year. I am still at a loss of words for 'Shame' (and not particularly in a good way). So, I am not so sure if it's a real snub. Anton Yelchin for 'Like Crazy' (the entire film was snubbed)

Who should win? I was pleasantly surprised by 'Moneyball', and although I am not sure Brad Pitt's performance was the strongest from this category, I preferred that film to 'The Descendants' and 'The Artist.' None of the performances were blow-me-away strong, so I can't pick a preference.

Who will win? It's still up in the air, but all eyes are looking at Jean Dujardin.

Best Actress

And the nominees are,

Glenn Close in 'Albert Nobbs'

Viola Davis in 'The Help'

Rooney Mara in 'The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo'

Meryl Streep in 'The Iron Lady'

Michelle Williams in 'My Week With Marilyn'

Snubs? - Tilda Swinton for 'We Need to Talk About Kevin'; Charlize Theron for 'Young Adult'; Felicity Jones for 'Like Crazy.'

Who should win? This category is stacked with strong performances. On one hand, we have Meryl Streep, who embodies the Baroness Thatcher impeccably. However, do we really give Meryl another Oscar in this film, for which she was overqualified to do? Impersonations are arguably below her, and another Oscar win will require something more emotional. Two roles fulfill this. One is Rooney Mara, who adds several layers of complexity to Lisbeth Salander. It was a different approach than Noomi Repace's, but arguably better. It was darker, more emotional, yet somewhat more human. I expect more to come from Rooney. But this year's real winner is Viola Davis, who portrays a woman struggling with loss and oppression, and has consequently put on a false persona to hide her vulnerabilities. It is hard not to tear up during several of her scenes. Her portrayal of Aibileen is honest, human, and humbling. She deserves the gold.

Who will win? Viola Davis, for the reasons given above. If her Golden Globe speech is any indication, it seems that even Meryl is rooting for her. SAG win helps more than any precursor.

Best Original Screenplay

And the nominees are

Woody Allen for 'Midnight in Paris'

Michel Hazanavicius for 'The Artist'

Asghar Farhadi for 'A Separation'

Kristin Wiig and Annie Mumolo for 'Bridesmadis'

JC Chandor for 'Margin Call'

Snubbed: Diablo Cody for 'Young Adult'

Who should win? The raunchy chick flick 'Bridesmaids' and the nostalgia-laden pseudo fan fiction 'Midnight in Paris' would be exceptional choices.

Who will win? Woody Allen is apparently the front runner. But so was David Fincher last year. The Artist will take this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay

And the nominees are,

Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne, Jim Rash for 'The Descendants'

Peter Straughan, Bridget O'Connor for 'Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy'

Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, Stan Chervin for 'Moneyball'

John Logan for 'Hugo'

George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon for 'The Ides of March'

Snubs? D R I V E!!

Who should win? Hugo was the best film of the bunch, and it was an incredible story. It should win.

Who will win? But Hugo won't win. The Descendants is the front runner. But I'm going to pick an upset a la Moneyball. The film has more nominations, and momentum for The Descendants died long ago.

Foreign Language Film

Who will win? The Polish film 'In Darkness' will defeat the eminent front-runner 'A Separation' from Iran. This is a category where upsets are a near certainty. Remember 'Pan's Labyrinth?' 'Biutiful?' 'The White Ribbon?'. 'In Darkness' will win solely by virtue of the Ricky Gervais rule - a film about the Holocaust is Oscar gold. Right, Kate?

Best Director

And the nominees are,

Michel Hazanavicius for 'The Artist'

Alexander Payne for 'The Descendants'

Martin Scorsese for 'Hugo'

Terrence Malick for 'The Tree of Life'

Woody Allen for 'Midnight in Paris'

Who should win? Easily, Martin Scorsese for putting together very carefully a beautiful film that told a story, was visually beautiful, and intelligent.

Who will win? They're going crazy over 'The Artist.' It's coming in for the sweep.

Best Picture

And the nominees (9x) are,

The Artist

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Midnight in Paris

The Help

Hugo

The Descendants

The Tree of Life

Moneyball

War Horse

Who should win? I can make cases for three films - The Help, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. My strongest case would probably be for The Help. I -COULD- make cases for Drive, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, and even Bridesmaids. But they were passed over for mediocre films, such as the Artist and The Descendants, and a film that was really just cruddy - The Tree of Life. Typical Oscar bullshit.

Who will win? The Artist will win, solely by virtue of it being a silent film. Midnight In Paris really explains The Artist to a tee - we seek notalgia because the present seems unsatisfying. The Academy will pick The Artist because it's a mainstream throwback. It wasn't a bad film. But it was stale. But, then again, stale films are usually Oscar gold. Remember 'The King's Speech?'

And my (unexplained) picks for other categories:

Art Direction: Hugo

Animated Feature: Rango

Cinematography: Hugo

Costume Design: The Artist

Film Editing: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Makeup: The Iron Lady

Score: The Artist

Song: Man or Muppet

Sound Mixing: Hugo

Sound Editing: Hugo

Visuals: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Documentary Feature: Undefeated

Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Leesmore

Documentary Short: Saving Face

Live Action Short: The Shore

Predicting Oscar Nominations

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It's been too long

I do want to actually start blogging a little bit more. More than just an annual take on the Academy Awards.

So, there's my desire. Let's see it turn into something, shall we?

A Few Words on the Academy

This year, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences selected 'The King's Speech' as the best film of 2010. I have been outspoken in my support for 'The Social Network', so I was disappointed in the decision. In this post, I will discuss why I think the Academy made a mistake this year. Furthermore, I will examine other years in which the Academy has made less than prudent decisions as a basis to argue that the Academy's final judgment should hardly be considered trustworthy.

The King's Speech
This film apparently made people 'feel.' Maybe it was because I was stone cold sober and lucid, but I didn't catch the real emotional bang this film has supposedly given so many others. The film is sold as a sort of biopic, focusing on one aspect of King George's life. What the film doesn't tell us is that a big chunk of the film - how King George received treatment for his speech problem - was completely made up by David Seidler, who wrote the screenplay. He based the interactions between Lional Logue and King George on his own experiences with a speech impediment. While this creates an interesting forum for framing speech therapy, in might not be the most appropriate way to talk about history. Each of the characters, furthermore, are fairly one-dimensional. The film was supposed to bring royal characters down to earth. But, at the end of the film, the Royal characters still acted in a stereotypically Royal fashion. In reality, the way the characters were portrayed were no different than any typical British costume drama. So, why was this one so great? In my opinion, the saving grace for 'The King's Speech' was the acting. Colin Firth deserved his Oscar. Geoffrey Rush arguably deserved it more than Christian Bale. Helena Bonham Carter played her role well, but it was a small role with little screen time that probably wasn't really worthy of Oscar attention. The rest of the ensemble fell into place the way they should have. We've seen people play the royal family before. And it's all the same. But, in reality, the film was lacking in real substance. It was slow moving, and boring for the most part. The setting was all the same colour. This was probably intentional, but it didn't help compensate for the slow moving nature of the film. I wasn't moved. For the most part, I was uncomfortable having to be in the same room as someone with such an awful speech problem. I would give the film a B.

The Social Network
I have this film rated below three other superb films - 'Black Swan', 'Toy Story 3', and 'Inception'. All three were nominated for Best Picture. All three were equally deserving as 'The Social Network'. I was pulling for this particular film to win. Partially because I thought it would have the best chance against 'The King's Speech', and partially because it really does speak to all people in the context of the current generation. 'The Social Network' is not just a movie about Facebook, just as 'The Dark Knight' was not simply a movie about Batman. 'The Social Network' examines themes to which even those without Facebook profiles can relate - Greed, betrayal, ambition, fairness, just to name a few. Is Mark Zuckerberg supposed to be a sympathetic character? I didn't find him to be one. What kind of lessons can we learn about the Facebook story? Does success come at a price? Is it worth it to stab your only friend in the back in order to get ahead in life? Although not everyone is dealing with a multi-billion dollar company, the themes examined in 'The Social Network' are not specific to that particular segment of society. They are universal. Furthermore, because the film takes place within the setting of Facebook, it offers a realistic view of how the world has been affected by something that started off as a drunken college experiment. Ideas can change the world. And in a fast-changing world like the world today, this message is important for EVERYONE. The film was assembled beautifully. The nearly flawless screenplay, combined with a somber, yet dramatic score, precise editing, and a realistic point of view, should have made this a no-brainer. The Academy screwed up big time. This film, in addition to the three awards it won, should have picked up awards for Best Picture and Best Director for David Fincher.

But this is not the firs time the Academy has screwed up. Let's take a look at some obvious examples:

2008 - 'Slumdog Millionaire'
First of all, I'm not going to get up in arms about this film winning. I am more angry that other films were not considered. 2008 was one of the best years in film, yet, the Academy insisted on putting up rather lackluster films to the plate, including 'Frost/Nixon', 'Milk', and 'The Curious Case of Benjamin Button'. The only film nominated that year that I found outstanding was 'The Reader'. 'Slumdog' was an interesting flick. It combined a Bollywood setting with Danny Boyle's lens. I do not deny that he deserved the Best Director prize. He did. But there were other films this year that should have been competing against Boyle's film for 'Best Picture', among them Chris Nolan's 'The Dark Knight', Clint Eastwood's 'Changelling', or 'Gran Torino', Sam Mendes' 'Revolutionary Road', and John Patrick Shanley's film adaptation of his play 'Doubt'.

2006 - 'The Departed'
This was an off year, but the only reason this film won was because the Academy made this their prime opportunity to bury the criticism of never having given Martin Scorsese an Oscar. 'The Departed', while far from being a bomb, was further from being Scorsese's best effort. Who deserved it more: 'Iwo Jima kara no Tegami' (This surely didn't win because it would be the second time in three years that Eastwood would have beaten Scorsese), 'Little Miss Sunshine', 'Little Children'.

2000 - 'Gladiator'
Yes, It's an epic story. Yes, it was action-packed and exciting like Bravehart (which is another lousy year in of itself). But was it really as good as hard-hitting 'Traffic'? Was it really as moving as 'Almost Famous'? Was it really as action-packed, hard-hitting, and moving as 'Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon'? Very simply - No.

And that's only three years. There are more, certainly. But, the final judgment is that the Academy is often flawed. 'The King's Speech' won not because it was so good, but because the Weinstein company finally found enough money and leverage to coerce voters into picking it as their top choice. Critics agree. They preferred 'The Social Network'. But one the guilds gave out their awards, it was clear that the power of Weinstein bucks placed an inferior film to the top. What a shame!

Top 10 of 2010

OK Y'all! Here's my final list for the Best Films of 2010!

1) Black Swan (A)
2) Toy Story 3 (A)
3) Inception (A)
4) The Social Network (A)
5) Kick Ass (A)
6) The Kids Are All Right (A-)
7) Never Let Me Go (A-)
8) True Grit (B+)
9) Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (B+)
10) Let Me In (B+)

Honourable Mentions: The Town (B+); Animal Kingdom (B+); The Fighter (B+)

ADDENDUM - Best Actress, Comments on Supporting Actress

I have realized that I completely skipped over Best Actress. . . so here it goes:

Nominees:
Annette Benning in The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman in Black Swan
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

Who was snubbed: Julianne Moore was snubbed for sure. She was arguably better than Annette (who was, by the way, fantastic). Also, Hailee Steinfeld should be included in this category. There is no way you can call her performance supporting. Jacki Weaver was also arguably a lead, but she fits just fine in supporting.

Who deserves to win: I love Annette Benning, and I agree that she is long overdue. Had I been an Academy voter in 1999, I would have undoubtedly thrown my support to her for her role in American Beauty. That being said, her role does not come anywhere near Natalie Portman's. Nobody's does. It is, quite simply, impossible to ignore her. She's gone places where many actresses won't go and put her heart and soul into her role. She deserves the statue.

Who will win: Natalie Portman, hands down. Sorry Annette, but you'll get your prize some day.

?BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Having finally seen True Grit, I am in a dilemma. Hailee Steinfeld's role is way to difficult to ignore when up against ACTUAL supporting roles. Therefore, I believe that she will probably end up winning the big prize. But, since the award is for SUPPORTING actress, and since this is TOTAL category fraud, I am hoping that Weaver or Leo can sneak in for the win. Hailee was fantastic, by the way. And it's not her fault that she's being campaigned as a supporting. It's the only way she can win this year, because she'd be up against one of the best female lead performances of all time (Portman) and one of the most overdue actresses (Benning).