83rd Academy Awards Predictions

83rd Academy Awards

The Academy Awards recognize the best in film every year. And every year, I make commentaries on the nominations. I like to add my own two cents. So, in this entry, I am going to discuss the nominations. Who got in? Who was snubbed? Who deserved it? Who didn’t? I will also predict the winners. Feel free to disagree.

Let’s start out with Best Picture:

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

So far, I have only seen 8/10, having still not seen 127 Hours and True Grit. So, here’s my take on the films so far:

Black Swan: This was perhaps my favourite film this year. It’s similar to Aranofsky’s character piece The Wrestler, but in this film he has perfected his art. Throughout the film, we watch the main character Nina (played by Natalie Portman) slowly deteriorate as she is possessed by her obsession to be the best. A

The Fighter: There is a similar approach to character study in this film, except it focuses on more than one character. It is a superbly done film with great acting. It was however, lacking in overall composition and approach. B+

Inception: Christopher Nolan is one of my favourite film makers. Inception was a unique concept about dreams and reality and the fine line in between the two worlds. As can be expected in a high budget film with Nolan as director, the visual effects were stunning. A

The Kids Are Alright: It felt like an honest film. It was heartfelt and warm at times and funny at others. It’s one of the only LGBT themed films that I have enjoyed. A-

The King’s Speech – It was exceedingly uncomfortable to watch. But Colin Firth absolutely nailed the roll. Although the film was slow-paced, it was well done on the whole. B

The Social Network – Another brilliantly composed film. It came out at just the right time too. Not only does it explore the origins of Facebook, but it also explores the themes of ambition and betrayal. It humanizes everything about Facebook. This film may very well define our generation. A

Toy Story 3 – Now that there are 10 nominations in this category, an animated film will almost always be included. This film, however, is more than just a niche in the category. I can easily say that this is my favourite animated film ever. Yes, even more than The Rescuers. And I almost cried. Almost. A

Winter’s Bone – The film was interesting, but not so believable. Jennifer Lawrence was brilliant, but, again, the story was unbelievable and the film was lacking in substance. C

Now, let’s rank them:
1. Black Swan
2. Toy Story 3
3. Inception
4. The Social Network
5. The Kids Are All Right
6. The Fighter
7. The King’s Speech
8. Winter’s Bone

Who was snubbed? The Academy actually did a fairly good job this year. 5 of the six films that I gave A’s to this year were included. The only one excluded was Kick Ass, which I never expected to be nominated anyway. So, I’m not really disappointed in this category. There probably, however, could have been a better choice in place of Winter’s Bone.

Who should win? I have ranked Black Swan the highest. However, the gap between Black Swan and The Social Network is very small, and it was very difficult to rank the first four films. If any of those four win, I will be satisfied.

Who will win? The King’s Speech was nominated for 12 awards – the most of any film. However, what many talking heads are failing to address is that, as a period film, it was included in some categories that others were not, such as Costume and Art Direction. Also, it received a handful of acting nominations. The most nominations doesn’t necessarily mean it will win the big awards. Remember The Curious Case of Benjamin Button? Or Dreamgirls? What about The Aviator? I feel like The King’s Speech was lacking in too many ways to be considered ‘best’. So my money will be put on The Social Network. It’s picked up momentum since the beginning of awards season. And, although the momentum has slowed down a bit, it should be enough to carry the film to the end. The King’s Speech has its own awards show to win at (BAFTA).

The only film I think that has a chance of beating The Social Network is Toy Story 3. And, if we find ourselves in a situation in which Toy Story 3 loses in the animated feature category, prepare to witness the first time an animated film wins Best Picture.

Best Director

Darren Aranofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, True Grit

Who was snubbed? This category makes me angry because, once again, Christopher Nolan was excluded. Although all of the nominees here are worthy, one should have been left out.

Who will win? I don’t much care to comment on who deserves to win. If I had my pick, Christopher Nolan would be it. That being said, I believe that David Fincher has the edge in this category. I would say, however, to pay attention to the Coen brothers. They could sneak in for the steal. But I highly doubt it.

Best Original Screenplay

Mike Leigh, Another Year
Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Lisa Cholodenko, Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right
David Seidler, The King’s Speech

Who was snubbed? I was surprised not to see Black Swan included in this list. But, come to think of it, I don’t know if I would call it a snub. Perhaps the screenplay was less important than other components to the film.

Who deserves to win? I think it’s high time for the Academy to honour Christopher Nolan for his work. But, if Lisa Cholodenko wins, I don’t think it would be unjust
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Who will win? I’m putting all my faith on the idea that the Academy will do the right thing. Although it is somewhat against my better judgment, I’m going with Christopher Nolan, even though I have a nasty feeling that David Seidler should prepare an acceptance speech.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Danny Boyle, Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours
Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, True Grit
Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone

Who was snubbed? I wish, oh how I wish that one of two films could have been included in this list: Kick Ass, and Scott Pilgrim vs the World. But, they were geared more towards the under 50 crowed, so Academy voters might have missed them.

Who should win? I haven’t seen two of the films, so my judgment is slightly clouded. I really liked what was done with Toy Story 3. But, honestly, I think my soft spot for some of my favourite childhood characters is taking the best of my judgement.

Who will win? Aaron Sorkin should have this one in the bag.

Best Actor

Javier Bardem for his role as Uxbal in Biutiful
Jeff Bridges as Rooster Cogburn in True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg as Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network
Colin Firth as ‘Bertie’, or King George VI in The King’s Speech
James Franco in 127 Hours

Who should win / Who will win? There should be plenty of justice in this category this year. I am so unbelievably impressed with Colin Firth. One would honestly think this man has all of these speech impediments. Watching him was uncomfortable, but equally astounding. Eisenberg is the only other role that I’ve seen. And, although it was great, nothing can top Firth.

Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale as Dicky Eklund in The Fighter
John Hawkes as Teardrop in Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner as Gem in The Town
Mark Ruffalo as Paul in The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush as Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech

Who was snubbed? Andrew Garfiled was snubbed. And John Hawkes is in. What the hell, Academy?

Who should win? It’s a hard call to decide this between Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush. Bale has never been honoured before, and Rush has plenty of nominations and a win under his belt. So I’d say my preference might be for Bale.

Who will win? Christian Bale is the favourite to win this category. And he very well might. And, once again, I’m letting my proclivity for gambling catch the best of my judgment, but I think that Geoffrey Rush is going to pull off an upset.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams as Charlene Fleming in The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter as Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon in The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo as Alice Ward in The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld as Mattie Ross in True Grit
Jacki Weaver as Janine “Smurf” Cody in Animal Kingdom

Who was snubbed? Chloe Grace Moretz had such a fantastic year. She was amazing in both Let Me In and Kick Ass. That she isn’t recognized for any of her work this year is tragic. I am surprised to see Helena Bonham Carter on this list. Although she was great in her role, it was a very small role. You leave the film remembering Firth and Rush. We could have included Barbara Hershey or Mila Kunis in her place.

Who should win? I’m torn. I haven’t seen True Grit, but have heard only great things about Steinfeld’s performance. It is her first film, and she is 14. It would be cool to see her win. The last person to win an acting Oscar on a first try is Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls. Out of the performances I’ve seen, Jacki Weaver’s stands out the most. I think she should probably win.

Who will win? I see this as a very competitive category. I think Melissa Leo has the edge, so I’m going to pick her. However, there is a very powerful campaign behind Steinfeld. And most of the early critics awards went for Jacki Weaver. Either of these two could pull an upset. There’s little threat from Helena Bonham Carter, whose role was too small to be recognized. Amy Adams’ performance was great. But, she’s against giants, and she has plenty of time to be nominated again. This is her third nomination in five years. Pretty impressive!

Well, there you have it! I’ll keep my other predictions in the minor categories to myself! See you all on Oscar night, where I will surely be boozing and commenting harshly on everyone’s dresses!