Wednesday, February 10, 2010

2009 Oscar Predictions

Okay! It’s about that time of year again! The Oscars are the second most important day of the year for me after Halloween. This year, the field is both exciting and disappointing. I hope my wishes come true, and I know I tend to let my hopes get the better of me when making predictions. But, I’m going to try the best I can here! Let’s start of easy:

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Matt Damon (Invictus); Woody Harrelson (The Messenger); Christopher Plummer (The Last Station); Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones); Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Who Deserves to win: This is perhaps the easiest category to evaluate. Although you have to feel for the veterans who have been waiting for their time, Christoph Waltz’s interpretation of Hans Landa was both charming and frightening, and perhaps the most crucial performance in the year’s best film.

Who will win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Penelope Cruz (Nine); Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air); Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart); Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air); Mo’Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire)

Who Deserves to win: First of all, I’d like to express my disappointment that Diane Kruger (Inglourious Basterds) and Marion Cotillard (Public Enemies; Nine) were not recognized for their outstanding work this year. However, I won’t express outrage, because all of these ladies nominated deserve recognition. Now, as far as being deserving, I would place two people at the top of my list – Mo’Nique and Anna Kendrick. Mo’Nique delivered such a surprising performance that disturbed and upset anyone who watched it. And Anna Kendrick gave us a very emotionally charged and real performance of a girl entering the real world. Both are deserving in my book. But, this category is no longer competitive.

Who will win: Mo’Nique

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell (District 9); Nick Hornby (An Education); Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche (In the Loop); Geoffrey Fletcher (Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire); Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)

Who Deserves to win: I have yet to see ‘In the Loop’, so my judgment is going to be slightly off. The screenplays for ‘An Education’, ‘Precious’, and ‘Up in the Air’ were all superb. However, seeing as how awful the book Up in the Air was, I am most impressed with how Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner managed to make lemonade from lemons.

Who will win: Up in the Air

Best Lead Actor

Nominees: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart); George Clooney (Up in the Air); Colin Firth (A Single Man); Morgan Freeman (Invictus); Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Who Deserves to win: George Clooney delivered his best performance, and, for that, I might be inclined to vote for him. But I also cannot ignore the power and honesty in Jeremy Renner’s turn in ‘The Hurt Locker’. I’d say both equally deserve. But, so is Jeff Bridges. The fact that he’s been waiting since ‘The Last Picture Show’ makes his name more appealing to voters on the ballot. It should be his to lose.

Who will win: Jeff Bridges

Best Director

Nominees: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker); James Cameron (Avatar); Lee Daniels (Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire); Jason Reitman (Up in the Air); Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Who deserves to win: Not James Cameron. The movie sucked. To all the ‘Avatar’ fans – why?? Daniels and Reitman deserve the nominations, but both of them are standing among the giants that are Kathryn Bigelow and Quentin Tarantino. Since meeting the Basterds, I have completely done a 360 on my opinion of Tarantino. I can really appreciate his work now. And ‘Inglourious Basterds’ might be his masterpiece. He deserves this award more than any other. However, Kathryn Bigelow really did create a beautiful film that captures so many relevant issues in today’s world. To add a final punch, she could win against James Cameron, her ex-husband. This is poetic justice at its finest. So, in the end, I’d like to see Tarantino win, but I will smile widely when Bigelow does.

Who will win: Kathryn Bigelow

Now, on to the more difficult nominees –

Best Actress

Nominees: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side); Dame Helen Mirren (The Last Station); Carey Mulligan (An Education); Gabourey Sidibe (Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire); Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia)

Who deserves to win: Maybe I just have a soft side for breakthrough performances. Before these nominations were announced, I would have said, very solidly, that Carey Mulligan deserves this. But, as soon as the nominees were announced, Gabourey Sidibe appeared on TV, very excited for her nomination. While ‘Precious’ is a very reserved and withdrawn character, Sidibe is bubbly, charming, and rather joyful. The acting job, then, was obviously superb. So, at this point, I’m on the fence between Sidibe and Mulligan. Now back to reality – Streep has had such an impressive career. This decade has been particularly impressive. We see her break her own Oscar record on a regular basis (we’re up to 16 nominations now). She hasn’t been awarded since ‘Sophie’s Choice’ in 1984. I think it’s high time to award her again. I think Academy voters are going to agree with me, and that the supposed frontrunner, Sandra Bullock, will walk away empty handed.

Who will win: Meryl Streep

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker); Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds); Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman (The Messenger); Ethan Coen, Joel Coen (A Serious Man); Peter Docter, Tom C. McCarthy, Bob Peterson (Up)

Who deserves to win: This should be an easy category – Quentin Tarantino’s brilliant screenplay was a standout this year. His talent, even more than directing his films, is creating his material out of nothing. He is a movie fan that hybrids aspects of all kinds of films to make his monsters. In this case, the spaghetti western and war story come together and make us remember all sorts of characters, including, Aldo the Apache, Hugo Stiglitz, and the Bear Jew. However, Tarantino’s win hardly seems certain. But I’m still gonna go with my gut on this one.

Who will win: Inglourious Basterds

Best Picture

Nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Who deserves to win: The best film of this lot that I have seen is, easily, Inglourious Basterds. Also appearing on my top ten list are An Education, and The Hurt Locker. I would like to see the Basterds take it all. And, I think it has a chance. I think if Tarantino takes home screenplay, then the race for Best Picture is between Inglourious Basterds and Avatar. If The Hurt Locker wins, then I think it will sweep the major three categories, including this one. But, since I have predicted that Tarantino will win screenplay, I think it is very likely, with the amount of momentum his film is picking up (plus the all powerful Weinstein push), that Inglourious Basterds could upset this category and take it. I hope that, if my screenplay choice is right, Avatar doesn’t end up ruining my night.

Who will win: (with one bullet in the barrel) Inglourious Basterds

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