Oscar Predictions!

It's about that time of year again. The Oscar nominations have been released, and now that I've had time to agonize over them, I'm finally ready to accept them as is and make some predictions. So, even though the best year of films I've seen has been met with some very unfair assessments by the Academy, I am ready! Here we go:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win: Heath Ledger
Who should win: Heath Ledger
This is the easiest category to assess, so I will start out with it. The first scene of 'The Dark Knight' solidifies Ledger's nomination into this category. The final scene solidifies his win. I reject the notion that he wouldn't win had he not died. That's a lie. It's a lie that people who don't like Super Hero films tell to make them feel better about Josh Brolin not winning an Oscar. To the other four nominees - be happy to be nominated alongside this unbeatable performance. Leger - Cheers, and rest in peace!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win: Penelope Cruz
Who should win: Amy Adams
Some of my later predictions will be more bold, so I will be a little less on this one. If Kate Winslet were in this category (as she should be), then I would pick her for the win without a doubt. I pick Penelope Cruz because she has the precursor advantage, but since Kate Winslet won most of the major ones for this category, it is very tough to assess. Personally, I thought Amy Adams gave the most compelling performance of the lot, but her chances of taking home the gold, unfortunately, seem slim. Look out for an upset by Viola Davis or Marisa Tomei.

BEST ACTOR
Who will win: Mickey Rourke
Who should win: Sean Penn or Mickey Rourke
My finer instincts tell me that Frank Langhella will win - Rourke won the Golden Globe, Penn won the SAG, so why not give the Oscar to an old veteran. The reason I pick Rourke is because Langhella's performance was not up to its hype. He is clearly a talented actor, but he was not cast in the right role. The two best performances came from Penn and Rourke, and, while both are equally deserving, I think Penn's previous and recent Oscar for 'Mystic River' will count against him and Rourke's comeback story will be in his favour.

BEST ACTRESS
Who will win: Kate Winslet
Who should win: Kate Winslet, but for a different film.

Kate Winslet's performance in 'The Reader' was brilliant. However, I still can't buy that it is a lead performance, especially within the context of the film. I think if the Academy considered Catherine Zeta Jones's role in 'Chicago' as supporting, then Kate's in 'The Reader' is also supporting. I believe that it is Kate's year to shine, but I think she should be winning two Oscars - one for her supporting role in 'The Reader' and one for her lead role in 'Revolutionary Road'. I feel sorry that Angelina Jolie and Anne Hathaway are going to lose to a supporting role, but, sorry ladies, Kate's overdue. I will be ecstatic when she is finally holding her long overdue statue!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who will win: Milk
Who should win: Happy-go-Lucky
I was disappointed that the Academy excluded 'Burn After Reading' and shocked that Academy staple Woody Allen didn't make it in with 'Vicky Cristina Barcelona'. So, this year, I think this category is going to be a consolation category. I think 'Milk' is going to miss out on Picture, Director, and Actor, and almost certainly the tech awards, so, the Academy will award it with Best Original Screenplay. I am usually more impressed with comedic screenplays, so I would prefer to see 'Happy-go-Lucky' take the gold, but, alas, Dustin Lance Black will take it home.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Who should win: Slumdog Millionaire
'Slumdog Millionaire' is the Hollywood darling this year, and I see no reason as to why the Academy won't award it in this category. It is well deserved. Although 'Slumdog' was not my favourite film this year, the writing was clearly apt, and I think this is where I would personally award the film. So, Simon Beaufoy for the gold.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who will win: Danny Boyle
Who should win: Gus Van Sant
This is going to be the biggest award for 'Slumdog Millionaire' this year. Intuition says it is a battle between him and David Fincher, but if I had my way, I would give the award to Gus Van Sant. You have to appreciate his manipulation of detail and juxtaposition of real life video clips, newspaper articles, and other things in with his narrative and plot. He knows a lot about film composition, and I think it should be his turn.

BEST PICTURE
Who will win: The Reader
Who should win: The Reader
This is my bold prediction of the year. 'Slumdog Millionaire' has been winning all the precursors , but I think the Academy will decide differently for a host of reasons. First, 'Slumdog' has been getting negative backlash in India from actual slum residents who resent their portrayal in the film as 'slumdogs'. The Academy hates to offend and hates to be politically incorrect. Second, and probably more important, two of the producers are Anthony Minghella and Syndey Pollack, both previous Best Director winners and Academy darlings. They also both died in the past year. I think the Oscars will be riding on the theme of posthumous Oscars, and will decide not only to give one to Heath Ledger, but also to Minghella and Pollack for as their final bow in extraordinary careers. And, although 'The Reader' would be winning for the wrong reasons, I won't complain, since it was not only the best film of the lot, but, in my opinion, the best film of the year. Fingers crossed!